The Empathy Gap: What the "Beer Buds" and a DC Strategist Can Teach Us

Altum Insight CEO Adrianne Marsh joined the hosts of the Beer, Buds and the Big Sky podcast to talk about rural voters, democracy, and what Democratic campaigns need to do better. What emerged was a fascinating look at why modern political messaging is failing and how a "hostage negotiation" mindset might be the only way to fix it:

The Empathy Deficit: Why Voters "Hate" the Establishment

Adrianne Marsh, a veteran of rural politics, highlighted a terrifying reality for the Democratic Party: they are currently polling below Elon Musk and J.D. Vance in terms of favorability.

The problem? A lack of trust. Marsh argues that the Democratic Party has become "weak" and "void of strategy," often talking at voters rather than listening to them. She introduced a concept used by hostage negotiators: the Stairway Model of Behavioral Change.

According to Marsh, the party keeps trying to jump to the top of the staircase ("Exerting Influence" or asking for a vote) without doing the hard work at the bottom: Active Listening, Empathy, and Rapport. Until voters feel heard about the "price of bananas" or their fear of AI, they won’t listen to a policy platform.

AI as a "Confessional": Deep Ethnography

When it comes to research, Marsh's team is primarily using AI to listen more deeply to people. Altum's AI moderated interviewer facilitates unique, adaptive conversations with voters, and this brings a "confessional" quality to the data.

Altum's research has found that voters often feel more comfortable sharing their unfiltered fears about the economy and "foreign actors" with a non-judgmental bot than with a human pollster. This technology revealed a "values-based fear" in rural areas—voters aren't just against data centers or AI because of resources; they see them as an attack on their very identity.

The "Democracy is Dead" Problem

Marsh offered a stinging critique of the "Democracy is on the Ballot" slogan. Altum's research in Montana and Nebraska suggests:

• The Right sees democracy as a constitutional structure that isn't working for them.
• The Left sees it as an ideal to be protected.
• The Reality: Rural and independent voters see "Democracy" as a stale, 200-year-old system that serves moneyed interests.

While Joe Biden campaigned on "protecting" the system, Donald Trump campaigned on "burning it down." For a voter who feels the system has failed them, "burning it down" sounds more like progress than "protection." Marsh’s advice? Stop talking about protecting democracy; start talking about protecting people.

"We will never outpace that rate of loss on the trust factor with these voters unless we figure out why they hate us so much."

Don't miss this conversation: